Title
PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR EXPERT-ADJUSTED FORECASTS
Authors
Abstract
This paper proposes a simple method to compute prediction intervals for expert-adjustedforecasts in case the analyst does not have the underlying model forecasts and thus has to create
own approximate model forecasts, based on data available to the analyst. An illustration to
airline revenues data shows that experts can substantially reduce forecast uncertainty.
Keywords
Prediction intervals, expert-adjusted forecasts, approximate model forecasts, forecast uncertainty, airline revenues
Classification-JEL
C22, C52, C53
Pages
308-320