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Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS)

Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS)

Published by Asia University, Taiwan; Scientific and Business World

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Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in South Africa

Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in South Africa

Title

Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in South Africa

Authors

  • Goodness C. Aye
    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on economic activities in South Africa while attempting to identify the role of uncertainty. The paper uses quarterly time series data using the variables of income tax, consumption tax, capital tax, and government expenditure to measure fiscal policy uncertainty while interest and inflation rate variables were used to measure monetary policy uncertainty. Also, real gross domestic product, real consumption, real investment, and employment were used to measure economic activities. The partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used for analysis and result presented for measurement and structural models. Results revealed the existence of policy uncertainty in the South African economy which tends to reduce the level of economic activity as uncertainty increases. This result informs of the need for policy makers to minimally reduce uncertainties for both fiscal and monetary policies for the economy to improve.

Keywords

Policy uncertainty, fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic activity, PLS-SEM.

Classification-JEL

C32, E32, E52, H32, O47

Pages

167-187

https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i1p167-187

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ISSN 2090-3359 (Print)
ISSN 2090-3367 (Online)

Asia University, Taiwan

Scientific and Business World

4.7
2023CiteScore
 
86th percentile
Powered by  Scopus
SCImago Journal & Country Rank
Q2 in Scopus
CiteScore 2023 = 4.7
CiteScoreTracker 2024 = 8.5
SNIP 2023 = 0.799
SJR Quartile = Q1
SJR 2024 = 0.814
H-Index = 20

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