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Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS)

Advances in Decision Sciences (ADS)

Published by Asia University, Taiwan; Scientific and Business World

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Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA from Tests and State Populations

Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA from Tests and State Populations

Title

Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA from Tests and State Populations

Authors

  • David E. Allen
    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Department of Finance, Asia)
  • Michael McAleer
    (Department of Finance, College of Management, Asia University, Taiwan)

Abstract

The paper presents a novel analysis of the US spread of the SARS-CoV-2 causes the COVID-19 disease across 50 States and 2 Territories. Simple cross- sectional regressions are able to predict quite accurately both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on measures aimed at controlling the disease via lockdowns. Population density appears to play a significant role in transmission. This throws in sharp relief the relative effectiveness of the at- tempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by ‘flattening the curve’ (aka planking the curve) of the speed of transmission, and the efficacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. The algorithmic tech- niques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers, and risk management and de- cision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries.COVID 19, Lockdown, CFR.

Keywords

Risk management, Curve projection, Live data, Global pandemic,

Classification-JEL

C22, C53, C88.

Pages

1-27

https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i2p1-27

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ISSN 2090-3359 (Print)
ISSN 2090-3367 (Online)

Asia University, Taiwan

Scientific and Business World

4.7
2023CiteScore
 
86th percentile
Powered by  Scopus
SCImago Journal & Country Rank
Q2 in Scopus
CiteScore 2023 = 4.7
CiteScoreTracker 2024 = 8.5
SNIP 2023 = 0.799
SJR Quartile = Q1
SJR 2024 = 0.814
H-Index = 20

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